Welcome To My Home

sethroto

Fantasy baseball is a labor of love.

That’s how I’ve always treated it since I started playing in the late 1990’s as a teenager. While scoring systems, league types, and hosting sites have changed since the early days, the game that I fell in love with is basically the same.

For the past 20+ years, I’ve released preseason fantasy baseball guides in one form or another — PDFs, magazines, websites. Over the last few years I’ve continued my process of studying each MLB player for the upcoming season in spite of the demand for newsstand publications going away.

This website is launching with my raw notes for all fantasy-relevant players and 30 farm systems. As you’ll probably notice, these notes are raw because they were more like “self notes” for my future rankings/projections, and I didn’t think that I would ever be publishing them. Though, as the time ticked toward Spring Training, I thought “why not?”

As time permits, I’ll also be posting weekly analysis on the site similar to what I’ve written in recent years for Fantasy Index and Rotoworld/NBC Sports Edge.

So enjoy the rankings, lists, and analysis. I hope you’ll find it helpful as a fantasy baseball player or baseball fan.

Early NFBC Draft Champions Shares 2024

sethroto

My NFBC Draft Champions drafts have concluded for the 2024 season.

I drafted 23 DCs from 12/26/23 thru 3/3/24:

  • 19 $150 Draft Champions
  • 3 $400 Draft Champions
  • 1 $1,000 Draft Champions

All players I drafted at least 40% of the time are listed below, though I’ve removed players who were drafted regularly in the top 30 rounds. Obviously, I did this because I don’t want competitors in high-stakes FAAB leagues in March getting early tips for who I’ll be drafting, but I’ll be releasing those names at the conclusion of draft season.

If you are looking for late-draft players in Draft Champions leagues during March, consider this list my recommendations.

PlayerPosTeamSharesPCT
Joe RossPMLW1986.40%
OF1672.70%
P1568.20%
Jordan WicksPCHC1568.20%
Alex WoodPOAK1568.20%
Nolan Schanuel1BLAA1463.60%
Heston KjerstadUTBAL1463.60%
Davis DanielPLAA1463.60%
P1359.10%
Ross StriplingPOAK1359.10%
Jakob JunisPMLW1359.10%
OF1254.50%
P1254.50%
Jose SuarezPLAA1254.50%
Trevor GottPOAK1254.50%
1B1150.00%
Aaron AshbyPMLW1150.00%
Marco GonzalesPPIT1150.00%
P1045.50%
Roansy ContrerasPPIT1045.50%
C940.90%
OF940.90%
Cade CavalliPWAS940.90%
OF940.90%
OF940.90%
C940.90%
P940.90%
Matt Mervis1BCHC940.90%
3B940.90%

The Weekly Planner – 6/5 – 6/11

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Shane McClanahan: @BOS, TEX

Kevin Gausman: HOU, MIN

 

Decent Plays

Louie Varland: @TB, @TOR

Zach Eflin: MIN, TEX

Lucas Giolito: @NYY, MIA

Nestor Cortes: CHW, BOS

Shane Bieber: BOS, HOU

Kyle Gibson: @MIL, KC

Mike Mayers: @MIA, @BAL

J.P. Sears: @PIT, @MIL

 

At Your Own Risk

Martin Perez: STL, @TB

Alek Manoah: HOU, MIN

Brandon Bielak: @TOR, @CLE

Brayan Bello: TB, @NYY

Joey Wentz: @PHI, ARI

 

National League

Strong Plays

Tony Gonsolin: @CIN, @PHI

Max Scherzer: @ATL, @PIT

Braxton Garrett: KC, @CHW

 

Decent Plays

Bryce Elder: NYM, WAS

Aaron Nola: DET, LAD

Hunter Greene: LAD, @STL

Freddy Peralta: BAL, OAK

Tommy Henry: @WAS, @DET

Julio Teheran: @CIN, OAK

Johan Oviedo: OAK, NYM

 

 

At Your Own Risk

Blake Snell: CHC, @COL

Alex Wood: @COL, CHC

Hayden Wesneski: @LAA, @SF

Kyle Hendricks: @SD, @SF

Luke Weaver: MIL, @STL

Adam Wainwright: @TEX, CIN

Jake Irvin: ARI, @ATL

Dinelson Lamet: SF, SD

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Jordan Lyles: @MIA (6/7)

Garrett Whitlock: @CLE (6/8)

Austin Voth: KC (6/10)

J.P. France: @CLE (6/10)

 

National League

Roansy Contreras: OAK (6/7)

Ryne Nelson: @DET (6/9)

Adrian Houser: OAK (6/9)

 

The Weekly Planner – 5/29 – 6/4

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Shane McClanahan: @CHC, @BOS

Joe Ryan: @HOU, CLE

Sonny Gray: @HOU, CLE

Nathan Eovaldi: @DET, SEA

Zach Eflin: @CHC, @BOS

 

Decent Plays

Tyler Wells: CLE, @SF

Michael Kopech: LAA, DET

Bryce Miller: NYY, @TEX

Brayan Bello: CIN, TB

Logan Allen: @BAL, @MIN

Yusei Kikuchi: MIL, @NYM

Domingo German: @SEA, @LAD

Griffin Canning: @CHW, @HOU

J.P. France: MIN, LAA

 

At Your Own Risk

Brandon Bielak: MIN, LAA

Cal Quantrill: @BAL, @MIN

Matthew Boyd: TEX, @CHW

Paul Blackburn: ATL, @MIA

 

National League

Strong Plays

Zac Gallen: COL, ATL

Sandy Alcantara: SD, OAK

 

Decent Plays

Marcus Stroman: TB, @SD

Kodai Senga: PHI, TOR

Anthony DeSclafani: PIT, BAL

Bobby Miller: WAS, NYY

Adrian Houser: @TOR, @CIN

Michael Soroka: @OAK, @ARI

Kyle Freeland: @ARI, @KC

 

At Your Own Risk

Rich Hill: @SF, STL

Trevor Williams: @LAD, PHI

Ryan Weathers: @MIA, CHC

Ranger Suarez: @NYM, @WAS

Ben Lively: @BOS, MIL

Ryne Nelson: COL, ATL

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Austin Voth: CLE (5/31)

Daniel Lynch: COL (6/4)

 

National League

Adam Wainwright: KC (5/29)

Sean Manaea: PIT (5/30)

Jared Shuster: @OAK (5/31)

Zach Davies: COL (6/1)

 

Player Notes

  • This is another good opportunity if you need middle infield help, as the returns of Royce Lewis and Luis Urias from the 60-day IL are imminent. Lewis has continued to rake in the minors, going 7-for-33 with four home runs and four steals in 10 games at Triple-A St. Paul. That steal total is especially significant coming off a knee injury, and an indication that he will be able to provide steals for fantasy managers. As for Urias, he’s really struggled at Triple-A, going 0-for-13, but the Brewers desperate need the help after losing Willy Adames to a concussion. His track record over the last two years indicates that Urias should be fine, at least if you need power.
  • Jake McCarthy was dropped in most leagues after his demotion to Triple-A, an example of cutting our losses after he was top 120 in ADP entering the season. He’s back as the Diamondbacks try to find answers in their outfield, and could be the big FAAB prize this weekend for fantasy managers desperate for stolen bases. It’s still worth noting that McCarthy is hitting eighth in Arizona’s batting order. He was mostly between 3-6 in the batting order last season during his breakout campaign, so the positioning in the order could hurt even if McCarthy is able to rebound. That said, steals are steals, and McCarthy showed great efficiency on the basepaths with 23 steals in 26 attempts last season.
  • It’s Miller time once again in this week’s pickups as Dodgers top prospect Bobby Miller has joined the Dodgers rotation. Coincidentally, he joins fellow top “Miller” pitching prospects Mason Miller and Bryce Miller as a FAAB prize, and the bidding should be spirited after a dominant opening act against Atlanta. Some of the hype is warranted with Miller’s dominant stuff, but I’ll be exercising some discretion with this one given Miller’s struggles in the upper levels of the minors. He doesn’t have great control (3.0 BB/9 at Double- and Triple-A), and the leash could be short with Michael Grove’s return imminent and Julio Urias likely close behind him.
  • If looking for an established MLB player to help, there are two new options with Jaime Barria and Austin Voth. Barria joined the Angels rotation this week and had an excellent debut start. The key to Barria’s game has always been his control, with a career 2.8 BB/9, and he’s continued to rely more on his offspeed stuff this season with greater success. As for Voth, he has a chance to replace Grayson Rodriguez in Baltimore’s rotation after doing a great job with the team last season (3.04 ERA in 83 innings). Home runs have always been an issue for Voth, which has continued this season and makes him a risky play in shallow leagues. Still, he has a career-best 3.57 K/BB ratio out of the pen this season, and the strong supporting cast does put him in the conversation if you’re desperate for new streaming options.

The Weekly Planner – 5/22 – 5/28

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Gerrit Cole: BAL, SD

Cristian Javier: @MIL, @OAK

Luis Castillo: OAK, PIT

Eduardo Rodriguez: @KC, CHW

Bailey Ober: SF, TOR

Dane Dunning: @PIT, @BAL

 

Decent Plays

Dylan Cease: @CLE, @DET

Jose Berrios: @TB, @MIN

Chris Bassitt: @TB, @MIN

Kyle Bradish: @NYY, TEX

Taj Bradley: TOR, LAD

Michael Lorenzen: @KC, CHW

Mike Clevinger: @CLE, @DET

Marco Gonzales: OAK, PIT

 

At Your Own Risk

Josh Fleming: TOR, LAD

Brady Singer: DET, WAS

Kyle Muller: @SEA, HOU

Luis Medina: @SEA, HOU

 

National League

Strong Plays

Spencer Strider: LAD, PHI

Corbin Burnes: HOU, SF

Alex Cobb: @MIN, @MIL

Yu Darvish: @WAS, @NYY

 

Decent Plays

Zack Wheeler: ARI, @ATL

MacKenzie Gore: SD, @KC

Jordan Montgomery: @CIN, @CLE

Drew Smyly: NYM, CIN

Charlie Morton: LAD, PHI

Kodai Senga: @CHC, @COL

 

At Your Own Risk

Eury Perez: @COL, @LAA

Edward Cabrera: @COL, @LAA

Sean Manaea: @MIN, @MIL

Colin Rea: HOU, SF

Gavin Stone: @ATL, @TB

Graham Ashcraft: STL, @CHC

Tommy Henry: @PHI, BOS

Brandon Williamson: STL, @CHC

Dylan Covey: ARI, @ATL

Chase Anderson: MIA, NYM

Austin Gomber: MIA, NYM

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Zack Greinke: DET (5/24)

Alex Faedo: CHW (5/25)

 

National League

Ryan Weathers: @WAS (5/24)

Eric Lauer: SF (5/25)

Steven Matz: @CIN (5/25)

 

Player Notes

  • Banking on prospect call-ups to produce in MLB is a crapshoot, especially hitters. A favorable opportunity and lineup spot like the Reds are providing with Matt McLain as their No. 2 hitter makes the projection a bit more favorable, but I don’t understand why many fantasy managers are dismissing his minor league struggles prior to this season. He was no longer on the top prospect radar after a mediocre season at Double-A Chattanooga, hitting only .232-17-58 with 27 steals in 452 plate appearances. The performance was far worse in the Arizona Fall League (.657 OPS), but suddenly he’s the middle infield prospect everyone has been waiting for after crushing Triple-A pitching in 38 games at Louisville. This isn’t to say McLain, a former first-round pick, won’t have a great MLB career, though the past struggles should be baked in to the projection and FAAB effort. Despite the good situation, I’d personally much rather wait on Royce Lewis’ pending promotion when he’s eligible to come off the IL for the Twins next week.
  • Speaking of Reds prospects, I’m not ready to be fooled by Brandon Williamson’s great debut at Coors Field. He undoubtedly has a plus arm, but Williamson’s control has been sub-par since last season with a BB/9 above 5.0 in the minors. Going back through recent history, the number of pitchers who have been an asset at the MLB level immediately after showing such poor control in the minors are few and far between. Williamson will get a much bigger test tomorrow against a hot Cardinals lineup that crushes lefties.
  • The Cardinals finally promoted Matthew Liberatore, a move fans have been screaming for since the pitching staff’s slow start. As he showed during Spring Training and Triple-A, Liberatore’s velocity was up significantly in his first start in the bigs in 2023. His fastball was up above two mph, and Liberatore worked more heavily off his curveball than we saw last season. The first-round pick’s turnaround already happened at Triple-A, with a 3.13 ERA in eight starts and a career-high 11.0 K/9. He had a very forgettable 2022 season in which he didn’t look like an MLB pitcher, including an ERA above 5.00 in 22 starts at Triple-A. The control here still makes me nervous in the short term, with a BB/9 that’s been above 3.0 as a pro for the most part, but Liberatore has a chance to be an asset in all leagues this season if the new found velocity holds.
  • This is a huge week for players returning from injury. In addition to the aforementioned Royce Lewis, pitchers Kyle Hendricks, Luis Severino, and Tyler Glasnow are set to make their season debuts, while Garrett Whitlock will also return for Boston. It’s a much-needed boost for fantasy lineups and MLB teams alike.

The Weekly Planner – 5/15 – 5/21

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Framber Valdez: CHC, OAK

Kevin Gausman: NYY, BAL

Shohei Ohtani: @BAL, MIN

Shane Bieber: @CHW, @NYM

George Kirby: @BOS, @ATL

 

Decent Plays

Pablo Lopez: @LAD, @LAA

Alek Manoah: NYY, BAL

Dane Dunning: ATL, COL

Domingo German: @TOR, @CIN

Grayson Rodriguez: LAA, @TOR

Dean Kremer: LAA, @TOR

 

At Your Own Risk

Yonny Chirinos: @NYM, MIL

Brad Keller: @SD, @CHW

Jhony Brito: @TOR, @CIN

 

National League

Strong Plays

Clayton Kershaw: MIN, @STL

Merrill Kelly: @OAK, @PIT

Justin Verlander: TB, CLE

Jesus Luzardo: WAS, @SF

Freddy Peralta: @STL, @TB

Josiah Gray: @MIA, DET

 

Decent Plays

Charlie Morton: @TEX, SEA

Jordan Montgomery: MIL, LAD

Alex Wood: PHI, MIA

Hunter Greene: @COL, NYY

Jameson Taillon: @HOU, @PHI

Bailey Falter: @SF, CHC

Michael Wacha: KC, BOS

 

At Your Own Risk

Patrick Corbin: NYM, DET

Noah Syndergaard: MIN, @STL

Jack Flaherty: MIL, LAD

Jared Shuster: @TEX, SEA

Connor Seabold: CIN, @TEX

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Chase Silseth: @BAL (5/16)

Brandon Bielak: OAK (5/19)

Alex Faedo: @WAS (5/20)

 

National League

Luis Ortiz: @DET (5/16)

Ryne Nelson: @OAK (5/17)

Trevor Williams: @MIA (5/18)

Braxton Garrett: @SF (5/20)

 

Player Notes

  • This week’s big prize in the pitcher FAAB sweepstakes is Marlins top prospect Eury Perez. The 6-foot-8 right-hander shined in his debut, allowing two runs in 4.2 innings with seven strikeouts vs. Cincinnati. While the long-term upside is almost limitless, Perez’s status brings some nuance to prospect rankings in relation to fantasy leagues. Perez only turned 20 on April 15 and has never made more than 20 starts or thrown more than 78 innings in a season as a pro. He also averaged only 4.1 innings per start last season and just over five innings in his six minor league starts this year. So while Perez seems likely to help fantasy managers with ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, the volume is very unlikely to be there for him this year or arguably in the next 2-3 seasons. You can make a case that an elite setup man like Bryan Abreu or Yennier Cano will be more valuable than the limited innings we’ll see from Perez in 2023.
  • The hitting prize this week is Casey Schmitt. Renowned for his defense at third base before this season, Schmitt shifted to shortstop this spring and has pleased the Giants with his play. Starting the year hitting .313-1-22 in 32 games at Triple-A Sacramento, Schmitt got a promotion with Brandon Crawford on the shelf and has already shown more power than he did in his early minor league start. Granted, Schmitt did hit 21 home runs in 126 games in the minors last season, so the power contribution isn’t unexpected. Despite the hot start, Schmitt isn’t a player who was highly thought of offensively until last season, and still has a limited offensive ceiling based on his track record. While the playing time should continue when Crawford returns, I’m not sure Schmitt is more than a fringe addition in 12-team leagues.
  • Alex Faedo has looked very good in two starts for the Tigers after struggling in the majors last season. The 27-year-old might be an afterthought in fantasy leagues at age 27 on mediocre team, but I believe there’s reason to take a closer look. Faedo is a former top prospect and first-round pick in 2017 whose development was greatly hindered by arm injuries, but he has an elite 4.22 K/BB and 2.2 BB/9 for his minor league career with a good three-pitch mix that includes a fastball averaging 93 mph and a slider. An extreme flyball rate is a concern for Faedo’s ERA, though his ability to throw strikes should at least make him a matchup play in the short term.
  • The Rockies rarely do things that make sense, but their continued handling of Elehuris Montero is particularly head-scratching. He entered the season as a popular sleeper with a history of great power and a path to at-bats at third base. After struggling defensively, the team sat Montero on the bench in mid-April before demoting him to Triple-A Albuquerque. Since the demotion, he’s hit .324-8-22 in only 17 games, BUT Montero has yet to appear in one game at the hot corner. Instead, he’s played nine games at first base and eight games at DH. Montero clearly isn’t very good at third base, but he’s also age 24 in an organization that’s already eight games below .500. So it seems the Rockies have already given up on Montero at third base, and he’s blocked in MLB by C.J. Cron and Charlie Blackmon. Can we please request a trade?

The Weekly Planner – 5/8 – 5/14

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Shane McClanahan: @BAL, @NYY

Dylan Cease: @KC, HOU

Tanner Bibee: DET, LAA

Lucas Giolito: @KC, HOU

Hunter Brown: @LAA, @CHW

Logan Gilbert: TEX, @DET

 

Decent Plays

Zach Eflin: @BAL, @NYY

Jon Gray: @SEA, @OAK

Nestor Cortes: OAK, TB

Kyle Gibson: TB, PIT

Louie Varland: SD, CHC

Andrew Heaney: @SEA, @OAK

Zack Greinke: CHW, @MIL

 

At Your Own Risk

JP Sears: @NYY, TEX

Clarke Schmidt: OAK, TB

Jordan Lyles: CHW, @MIL

Michael Lorenzen: @CLE, SEA

Drew Rucinski: @NYY, TEX

 

National League

Strong Plays

Zac Gallen: MIA, SF

Logan Webb: WAS, @ARI

Mitch Keller: COL, @BAL

Anthony DeSclafani: WAS, @ARI

Max Scherzer: @CIN, @WAS

 

 

Decent Plays

Marcus Stroman: STL, @MIN

Charlie Morton: BOS, @TOR

Miles Mikolas: @CHC, @BOS

Brandon Pfaadt: MIA, SF

Tony Gonsolin: @MIL, SD

Braxton Garrett: @ARI, CIN

 

At Your Own Risk

Michael Wacha: @MIN, @LAD

Kyle Freeland: @PIT, PHI

Jake Irvin: @SF, NYM

Luke Weaver: NYM, @MIA

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Jhony Brito: OAK (5/10)

Mike Clevinger: @KC (5/11)

Kyle Bradish: PIT (5/12)

 

National League

Antonio Senzatela: @PIT (5/10)

Rich Hill: COL (5/10)

Sean Manaea: WAS (5/10)

Tommy Henry: SF (5/11)

Adrian Houser: KC (5/14)

 

Player Notes

  • The JJ Bleday-for-AJ Puk swap between Oakland and Miami is turning into one of the most interesting trades of the spring. Puk has emerged as the Marlins closer, while Bleday suddenly looks like a real player after struggling prior to this season. The former fourth overall pick in the draft, Bleday was called up to play regularly for the A’s after a great start to his season at Triple-A. There’s reason to believe he’s made real adjustments with his new organization, as well. Bleday struck out 27% of the time at Triple-A last season, but that rate was down to sub-13% in 119 plate appearances before he was promoted. His inability to make contact has been a huge culprit for his inability to hit for average, including a .228 batting average at Triple-A last season. There has never been a question that the 25-year-old had a power of an MLB corner outfielder, including 25 home runs between Triple-A and the majors last year. While I’m not quite ready to go all-in based on the still relatively small sample size, Bleday is an interesting flier in mixed leagues.
  • Royals infielder Maikel Garcia appears to be another call-up worthy of attention. The undersized infielder has started off hot with the Royals, just as he did when he got called up in September. There was some trepidation with the bat after a slow start at Omaha, hitting only .242 in 112 plate appearances, but Garcia performed much better at that level in 186 plate appearances last season hitting .274-7-28 with 12 steals in 40 games. There are two other developments worth watching in his game. Garcia has been more patient this season (16 walks in 22 games at Triple-A, and the power has started to develop over the last year. He hit 11 home runs last season and carried that power surge into the Venezuelan Winter League, with four homers. Logically, there’s nothing standing in the way of Garcia seeing regular at-bats as the team’s third baseman the rest of the way, and his excellent base stealing skills give Garcia a high fantasy ceiling.
  • Of course, Cubs first baseman Matt Mervis was the most anticipated prospect called up this week and for good reason based on what he’s done since the start of last season. The Duke alum hit .309-36-119 between three levels last season, and he’s picked up where he left off hitting .286-6-27 in only 112 plate appearances at Iowa. Eric Hosmer’s addition was clearly a stand-in for Mervis, who continues to show plus power and solid contact for a power hitter. The only major limitation worth watching is his spot in the batting order, hitting seventh in his first two games. It should also be noted that he’s probably not the best first base prospect to be promoted before the All-Star break, as Reds first base prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A since returning from injury and should be up whenever the Reds have had enough of their current first base experiments.
  • Bryce Miller is one of the more interesting FAAB pickups of the week, and his price is fluid with his first start against a real lineup (Houston) coming today after dominating Oakland in his debut. The hype about his fastball is real. It averaged 95 mph in his debut, and he threw the pitch 70% of the time. With the heavy usage and lack of great secondary stuff, the concern comes when he faces the league for the second time. Miller is an extreme flyball pitcher who struggled with the long ball in his four starts at Double-A earlier this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some blowups and a highly variable ERA this season.
  • Pierce Johnson remains the clear closer in Colorado despite the return of Daniel Bard. The Denver native has converted two saves this week and has continued to miss bats on command after missing most of last season in San Diego due to injury. He currently has a career-high 13.5 K/9. There are some red flags with a 5.4 BB/9 and home run issues, but the curveball-fastball combo is working just fine overall. Bard is easily the highest paid reliever in the Rox pen, but Bud Black has yet to use him in anything close to a high-leverage situation and it remains to be seen if that will change.
  • During the offseason, I saw a lot of what I felt to be misguided speculation that groundball pitchers would be penalized by the lack of shifts. This idea came with an assumption that MLB would be using the same “dead” ball as last season, which was a very risky bet. It appears we’ve reverted back to something closer to the 2019 ball, and thus groundball pitchers have been a savior for many fantasy squads with a high floor and fewer blowups, as much of the Giants starting rotation can attest. That brings me to a pitcher coming back from injury and worth watching. Milwaukee groundball specialist Adrian Houser has a career 54% groundball grate that was much higher in 2020-2021 when he was pitching some of his best baseball. Houser doesn’t miss many bats, with a mediocre career 7.2 K/9, but his ability to provoke groundballs has made him a serviceable backend starting pitcher and someone worth watching if he looks strong in his season debut today.

The Weekly Planner – 5/1-5/7

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Shane McClanahan: PIT, NYY

Joe Ryan: @CHW, @CLE

Logan Gilbert: @OAK, HOU

Yusei Kikuchi: @BOS, @PIT

Jose Berrios: @BOS, @PIT

 

Decent Plays

Luis Garcia: SF, @SEA

Jon Gray: ARI, @LAA

Tyler Wells: @KC, @ATL

Tanner Houck: TOR, @PHI

Corey Kluber: TOR, @PHI

Domingo German: CLE, @TB

Zack Greinke: BAL, OAK

 

At Your Own Risk

Michael Kopech: MIN, @CIN

Michael Lorenzen: NYM, @STL

 

National League

Strong Plays

Zac Gallen: @TEX, WAS

Max Scherzer: @DET, COL

Sandy Alcantara: ATL, @CHC

Drew Smyly: @WAS, MIA

 

Decent Plays

Charlie Morton: @NYM, BAL

Hayden Wesneski: @WAS, MIA

MacKenzie Gore: ChC, @ARI

Roansy Contreras: @TB, TOR

Blake Snell: CIN, LAD

Steven Matz: LAA, DET

Ross Stripling: @HOU, MIL

 

At Your Own Risk

Taijuan Walker: @LAD, BOS

Eric Lauer: @COL, @SF

Luke Weaver: @SD, CHW

Ryan Feltner: MIL, @NYM

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Ryan Yarbrough: OAK (5/6)

Ken Waldichuk: @KC (5/7)

 

National League

Michael Wacha: CIN (5/2)

Ryne Nelson: WAS (5/6)

Joey Lucchesi: COL (5/6)

 

Player Notes

  • This is a big week for pitching pickups with arms like Bailey Ober and Tanner Bibee earning rotation spots, while Dodgers top prospect Gavin Stone is also set to make his debut on Wednesday. As mentioned last week, I strongly believe Ober and Bibee are more worthy of big bids than Mason Miller was last week due to a higher innings cap and more competitive teams. Bibee was my favorite pitching prospect in all of baseball coming into the year (as evidenced by my 70%+ ownership share in NFBC Draft Champions leagues), as much for his great stuff as for his polish. Simply put, you won’t find many minor league pitchers with a career K/BB ratio above 5.00, and that ratio was actually above 6.00 last season. Bibee has also been relatively durable, including 132.2 innings last season, so he should have some leeway to pitch major innings with Cleveland this year. Even when Triston McKenzie returns, the Guardians should be able to make room for Bibee in the starting rotation with the way Zach Plesac has struggled. Bibee is the closest thing you will find to a Spencer Strider addition in 2023, and I’d be aggressive in FAAB bidding.
  • Ober can be a good fallback option with Kenta Maeda going down with more arm issues. The reported Spring velocity increase hasn’t held early in his MLB numbers, but Ober has been excellent in two starts, nonetheless. I’m a big Ober fan because of his elite control, with a career BB/9 below 2.0, and he also proved last season that he could keep the ball in the park. It’s often difficult for tall pitchers like Ober to show consistency due to mechanical issues, but Ober hasn’t shown any issues in his career.
  • Another fallback option with long-term upside is Dane Dunning, who is the assumed replacement for Jacob deGrom in the Rangers rotation. Those fantasy managers who bought into the Dunning Experience last season will likely shy away, but it should be noted that he pitched hurt with a hip injury that was surgically repaired in the offseason. The previous two seasons showed breakout potential with a sub-4.00 FIP in his first two MLB seasons and well above average groundball rates. Dunning hasn’t been missing bats early this season as a reliever, throwing his cutter more often, though that’s also over a small sample size of innings. Dunning might not earn a start in the coming week with Texas looking at two off-days, but I like the potential as a stash.
  • There’s some hype over the promotion of Rockies outfielder Brenton Doyle. While Doyle is athletically gifted and strong defensively, I find the hype to be puzzling. Doyle was barely on the prospect radar before this season in large park to his high strikeout rate, including 171 strikeouts in 548 plate appearances last season. He was also a 20/20 man during that time, but Doyle has shown very poor on-base ability. He did hit .306 in 12 games at Triple-A prior to the call-up this year, but Doyle is already 25 and the longer track record shows that performance to be a fluke. He has a path to playing time, though it should be remembered how hesitant Bud Black and the Rockies organization are to give young players opportunities over the years (Elehuris Montero, cough, cough).
  • The Cardinals are riding the hot hand in their lineup with Paul DeJong becoming a regular since his promotion to the majors. Before getting ahead of ourselves, remember that DeJong is a historically streaky hitter. We only need to look to his promotion in late July of last year for proof. DeJong hit .333-4-13 in his first 10 games. He hit .120-1-5 the rest of the way (43 games). If you’re rostering Tommy Edman and worried, I wouldn’t be too scared.

The Weekly Planner – 4/24-4/30

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Joe Ryan: NYY, KC

Chris Sale: @BAL, CLE

Sonny Gray: NYY, KC

Nestor Cortes: @MIN, @TEX

Logan Gilbert: @PHI, @TOR

Drew Rasmussen: HOU, @CHW

 

Decent Plays

Kyle Bradish: BOS, @DET

Taj Bradley: HOU, @CHW

Lance Lynn: @TOR, TB

Jose Urquidy: @TB, PHI

Brady Singer: @ARI, @MIN

Nathan Eovaldi: @CIN, NYY

Martin Perez: @CIN, NYY

Matthew Boyd: @MIL, BAL

Brad Keller: @ARI, @MIN

Chris Bassitt: CHW, SEA

 

At Your Own Risk

Jose Suarez: OAK, @MIL

Jhony Brito: @MIN, @TEX

Mike Clevinger: @TOR, TB

Ken Waldichuk: @LAA, CIN

Dean Kremer: BOS, @DET

Spencer Turnbull: @MIL, BAL

 

National League

Strong Plays

Spencer Strider: MIA, @NYM

Nick Lodolo: TEX, @OAK

Justin Steele: SD, @MIA

 

Decent Plays

Sandy Alcantara: @ATL, CHC

Alex Cobb: STL, @SD

Charlie Morton: MIA, @NYM

Jordan Montgomery: @SF, @LAD

Jose Oviedo: LAD, @WAS

Noah Syndergaard: @PIT, STL

Josiah Gray: @NYM, PIT

Edward Cabrera: @ATL, CHC

Bailey Falter: SEA, @HOU

 

At Your Own Risk

Colin Rea: DET, LAA

Tommy Henry: KC, @COL

Austin Gomber: @CLE, ARI

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Griffin Canning: OAK (4/25)

 

National League

Ryne Nelson: KC (4/25)

Eric Lauer: DET (4/25)

Steven Matz: @SF (4/26)

Joey Lucchesi: WAS (4/27)

Rich Hill: @WAS (4/28)

 

Player Notes

  • Oakland youngster Mason Miller was the talk of the week, as the suddenly top prospect was promoted by the A’s and had an excellent first outing against the Cubs while hitting triple-digits on the radar gun. It was be an interesting FAAB showdown for his services, with big upside but also some short-term red flags. Miller has only thrown 28.2 minor league innings, due in part to injuries, but he’s been spectacular over that time with 53/6 K/BB in 28.2 innings. The former third-round pick will likely have his innings heavily limited this season due to the injury history and throwing only 14 innings all of last season. He also won’t win many games with a conservative pitch count and a horrific supporting cast in Oakland. Though, the upside is undeniable, especially in keeper leagues. However, for redraft leagues I’d strongly prefer to wait on a Bailey Ober or prospect with a higher innings cap like Tanner Bibee.
  • The other Logan Allen is set to make his MLB debut today, with Cleveland in dire position due to starting rotation injuries. Allen has plenty of minor league season after being drafted in 2020 out of college, and has bounced back nicely in three starts at Triple-A Columbus early this season after struggling in 14 starts last year. Despite his past struggles, Allen has consistently missed bats with an 11.8 K/9 for his pro career and 12.6 K/9 this season, The only big question is how his control will fare, as it’s been far from perfect as he’s moved up (3.5 BB/9 last season, 3.1 BB/9) this year. The lefty also has a short leash with Bibee and a host of other interesting arms waiting in the wings, but there is certainly potential for Allen to be a difference maker this season.
  • He’s far less romantic, but Joey Lucchesi could be an interesting find. The veteran left-hander is back from Tommy John surgery, and threw seven scoreless innings in his start last week. We shouldn’t forget what’s been a pretty solid track record from the soft-tosser, with a career 4.24 ERA and 9.3 K/9 for his career between San Diego and the Mets. The numerous injuries in the Mets rotation, along with Max Scherzer’s suspension, should allow Lucchesi to stick around a while, and potentially earn wins on a strong squad.
  • It’s taking everything I have not to jump back on the Jarren Duran bandwagon. I felt he was one of the most underrated fantasy prospects before last season, but Duran looked lost with the Red Sox when he was given an opportunity to play. There was a clear difference in his readiness in the brief time he played in Spring Training, and that’s carried over to the majors with a hot start. While in a platoon, Duran has clear 20/20 upside and could slide up the batting order in a thin Red Sox lineup if he continues to hit. Still, there should be some concern with his strikeout rate, which has continued at 30% so far.
  • For a catcher fill-in, look no further than Matt Thaiss. The Angel played catcher in college at Virginia but didn’t play a game as a pro until 2021, five years after he was a first-round pick. He could be sit to be a starter for a while, depending on the severity of Logan O’Hoppe’s shoulder injury, and hit a key home run on Saturday. Thaiss’ MLB performance at the plate has been poor overall, hitting only .200-12-24 in 298 career plate appearances, but the minor league stats are quite intriguing. He has a career .838 OPS in over 1,500 plate appearances at Triple-A, and could be a viable second catcher in fantasy leagues.

The Weekly Planner – 4/17-4/23

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Jacob deGrom: @KC, OAK

Shohei Ohtani: @BOS, KC

Kevin Gausman: @HOU, @NYY

Sonny Gray: @BOS, WAS

 

Decent Plays

Cristian Javier: TOR, @ATL

Lance Lynn: PHI, @TB

Chris Sale: MIN, @MIL

Eduardo Rodriguez: CLE, @BAL

Brayan Bello: LAA, @MIL

Hunter Gaddis: @DET, MIA

 

At Your Own Risk

Clarke Schmidt: LAA, TOR

Jordan Lyles: TEX, @LAA

Kyle Muller: CHC, @TEX

Chris Flexen: MIL, STL

 

National League

Strong Plays

Spencer Strider: @SD, HOU

Zack Wheeler: @CHW, COL

Corbin Burnes: @SEA, BOS

Hunter Greene: TB, @PIT

Nick Lodolo: TB, @PIT

Jesus Luzardo: SF, @CLE

Alex Cobb: @MIA, NYM

 

Decent Plays

Clayton Kershaw: NYM, @CHC

Marcus Stroman: @OAK, LAD

Dustin May: NYM, @CHC

Alex Wood: @MIA, NYM

David Peterson: @LAD, @SF

Merrill Kelly: @STL, SD

Bailey Falter: @CHW, COL

Tylor Megill: @LAD, @SF

 

At Your Own Risk

Jack Flaherty: ARI, @SEA

Kyle Freeland: PIT, @PHI

Hayden Wesneski: @OAK, LAD

Drey Jameson: @STL, SD

Vince Velasquez: @COL, CIN

Jose Urena: PIT, @PHI

Rich Hill: @COL, CIN

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Corey Kluber: MIN (4/19)

Cal Quantrill: @DET (4/19)

 

National League

Josiah Gray: BAL (4/18)

Matt Strahm: COL (4/20)

Carlos Carrasco: @SF (4/21)

The Weekly Planner – 4/10 – 4/16

sethroto

For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.

My current intention is to post on Saturday, but with some more freeform notes rather than a set format. I’ll post my player and team observations from the past week, as well as some matchups to consider for the upcoming week, in addition to my look at the scheduled two-start pitchers and streamers.

If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.

 

Two Start Pitchers

American League

Strong Plays

Framber Valdez: @PIT, TEX

Gerrit Cole: @CLE, MIN

Luis Castillo: @CHC, COL

Shane McClanahan: BOS, @TOR

Shane Bieber: NYY, @WAS

Dylan Cease: @MIN, BAL

Grayson Rodriguez: OAK, @CHW

Pablo Lopez: CHW, @NYY

 

Decent Plays

Kenta Maeda: CHW, @NYY

Alek Manoah: DET, TB

Garrett Whitlock: @TB, LAA

Andrew Heaney: KC, @HOU

Kyle Gibson: OAK, @CHW

Nick Pivetta: @TB, LAA

Domingo German: @CLE, MIN

 

At Your Own Risk

Zack Greinke: @TEX, ATL

JP Sears: @BAL, NYM

Matt Manning: @TOR, SF

Josh Fleming: BOS, @TOR

 

National League

Strong Plays

Aaron Nola: MIA, @CIN

Sandy Alcantara: @PHI, ARI

Max Scherzer: SD, @OAK

Julio Urias: @SF, CHC

Zac Gallen: MIL, @MIA

Corbin Burnes: @ARI, @SD

Logan Webb: LAD, @DET

 

Decent Plays

Bryce Elder: CIN, @KC

Matt Strahm: MIA, @CIN

Wade Miley: @ARI, @SD

Mitch Keller: HOU, @STL

Roansy Contreras: HOU, @STL

Steven Matz: @COL, PIT

 

At Your Own Risk

Miles Mikolas: @COL, PIT

German Marquez: STL, @SEA

Graham Ashcraft: @ATL, PHI

Drew Smyly: SEA, @LAD

Patrick Corbin: @LAA, CLE

Luis Cessa: @ATL, PHI

 

Streamers

These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.

American League

Dean Kremer: OAK (4/12)

Tucker Davidson: WAS (4/12)

Cole Irvin: OAK (4/13)

Marco Gonzales: COL (4/14)

 

National League

Zach Davies: @ MIA (4/14)

Jake Woodford: PIT (4/14)

Dylan Dodd: @ KC (4/15)

 

Player Notes

  • Matt Strahm was outstanding in his first start of the year for Philadelphia, and has an easy two-start week ahead against the Marlins and Reds. That should make him a popular pickup, and I really like the long-term potential as a starter. The left-hander has had durability issues for much of his career and only has 26 starts over eight seasons, but few pitchers have shown better control than Strahm since 2019 (2.1 BB/9). He showed very good velocity in his first start relative to his career norm despite throwing five innings. Strahm seemed focused on his four-seamer and slider in his first outing. The obvious concern is Strahm’s extreme flyball rate and resulting history of home run issues, but the control has the potential to make him a viable matchup play for as long as he’s in the rotation.
  • Matt Vierling could net some big bids after a hot week. The former Phillie has already been rewarded by moving up in the Tigers anemic lineup, hitting leadoff or third in five of his first six starts. While he’s never shown elite stolen base ability in the minors, Vierling’s Statcast data does show elite speed, and his power also started to surface in 2021 with 11 home runs in 80 games. Given the lineup positioning, a healthy bid seems warranted.
  • I’m almost as intrigued by Jake Cave following Darick Hall’s thumb injury. The 30-year-old outfield has seen his fair share of injuries during his career, but he performed well in his first two seasons hitting .262-21-70 over 163 games with Minnesota and claims full health this year. His very early barrel rate has been elite, and Cave hit as many as 20 home runs as a minor leaguer. With regular starts against right-handed pitching, Cave could be worth a stash.
  • The big FAAB pickup this week is Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez, who was promoted following Omar Narvaez’s injury. I’ll preface this criticism by saying that I’m very high on Alvarez’s long-term prospects, but I don’t think Alvarez is worth a big bid in redraft mixed leagues. Alvarez has big power potential, but he’s hit only .236/.381/.466 in 218 plate appearances at Triple-A and seemed overmatched in the majors late last season and during Spring Training (3-for-28). More importantly, it’s not clear that the Mets are convinced he’s ready defensively, one of the criticisms we heard often in the offseason. In the short term, I expect something close to a 50/50 timeshare behind the plate with veteran Tomas Nido and a Mike Zunino-like upside as a big power hitter who could hurt your batting average. He’s a 30 home run hitter down the line.
  • Now is the time to get back on the Aroldis Chapman bandwagon. The new Royals coaching staff has apparently fixed the flame-throwing lefty mechanically. His early fastball average velo is 100.5 mph, the best of his career and nearly three mph better than last season. The results have been clear with six strikeouts and only two baserunners allowed in three innings. Even if Chapman doesn’t get closer duties soon in KC, I expect him to close at some points, somewhere in 2023. If the velocity keeps up, Chapman could be one of the hottest commodities at the deadline with his very cheap one-year deal and long history of closing out games. In the meantime, his innings and strikeouts still hold plenty of value.
  • The key to Yusei Kikuchi’s success has long been his velocity, and he was terrific in his first start with then average fastball better than 96 mph. You might recall his great first half in 2021 with Seattle, and he had similar velocity during that stretch. It remains to be seen how long the increased velocity will keep up, but fantasy managers should employ Kikuchi confidently for as long as he’s throwing gas.